How overlooked prospects and late draft picks proved that NBA scouts don’t always get it right
Every June, NBA teams gather to make one of the most important decisions in basketball: the draft.
Front offices study thousands of hours of film. They analyze athletic measurements, college statistics, and psychological profiles. Scouts travel across continents searching for the next franchise player.
And yet, every year, something surprising happens.
Players selected late in the draft, sometimes even in the second round, end up becoming the stars everyone else missed.
Some develop into All-Stars. Some win championships. A few even become MVPs.
Meanwhile, teams that passed on them are left wondering how such obvious talent slipped through their fingers.
The NBA draft may be designed to identify the league’s future superstars, but history shows it often produces something else: the greatest draft steals in sports.
Here are ten players who were underestimated on draft night, and went on to become some of the most influential stars in modern basketball.
1. Nikola Jokić — Pick №41 (2014)
When the 2014 NBA Draft reached the 41st pick, few fans were paying attention.
The television broadcast had even cut to a commercial break when the Denver Nuggets quietly selected a little-known Serbian center named Nikola Jokić. At the time, he was viewed as a developmental prospect, a skilled big man with impressive passing ability but limited athleticism.
Nothing about the moment suggested the Nuggets had just drafted one of the greatest players of his generation.
Jokić joined the NBA the following year and slowly began reshaping expectations. Instead of relying on explosive athleticism, he dominated games with vision, timing, and an almost unprecedented ability to pass the ball from the center position.
As the seasons passed, his impact became impossible to ignore. Jokić developed into the offensive engine of the Denver Nuggets, capable of scoring, rebounding, and orchestrating an entire offense.
His rise reached historic heights when he won multiple NBA Most Valuable Player awards and later led the Nuggets to their first NBA championship in franchise history.
For a player drafted 41st overall, the transformation is almost unbelievable. Jokić didn’t just outperform his draft position, he redefined what teams look for in modern centers.
Today, his name appears in conversations about the best players in the world.
And it all began with a quiet second-round pick that most of the basketball world barely noticed.
2. Manu Ginóbili — Pick №57 (1999)
By the time the NBA Draft reaches the late second round, expectations are usually very low.
Many players selected at that stage never become regular contributors in the league. Some never appear in the NBA at all.
That’s what made the selection of Manu Ginóbili at 57th overall in the 1999 draft so unremarkable at the time.
The San Antonio Spurs saw potential in the talented Argentine guard, but few observers imagined he would become one of the most influential international players in NBA history.
Ginóbili spent several years developing his game in Europe before joining the Spurs, and when he finally arrived in the NBA he brought a style that felt completely different from most guards in the league. His fearless drives, creative passing, and signature Eurostep move constantly put defenses off balance.
Alongside Tim Duncan and Tony Parker, Ginóbili became a central part of one of the NBA’s greatest dynasties.
During his career he helped the Spurs win four NBA championships, earned multiple All-Star selections, and eventually secured a place in the Basketball Hall of Fame.
For a player drafted 57th overall, his impact was extraordinary.
Ginóbili’s career showed that scouting reports and draft projections sometimes miss the most important quality a player can have: the ability to change the game.
3. Draymond Green — Pick №35 (2012)
When Draymond Green entered the 2012 NBA Draft, many scouts struggled to categorize him.
He wasn’t considered tall enough to dominate as a traditional power forward, and he didn’t possess the scoring ability teams typically expected from perimeter players. Because of that uncertainty, Green slipped into the second round, where the Golden State Warriors selected him with the 35th overall pick.
At the time, the selection attracted little attention.
But once Green entered the league, something quickly became clear: his impact extended far beyond traditional statistics. He brought relentless defensive intensity, exceptional basketball intelligence, and a rare ability to guard multiple positions on the court.
As the Warriors’ young core developed, Green emerged as the defensive anchor and emotional leader of the team. His versatility allowed Golden State to play a faster, smaller style of basketball that became one of the defining strategies of modern NBA offenses.
Alongside Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, Green helped transform the Warriors into one of the most dominant dynasties of the 21st century.
During his career he became a multiple-time All-Star, Defensive Player of the Year, and four-time NBA champion.
For a player selected 35th overall, Green’s influence on the game, particularly on the defensive end, represents one of the most remarkable draft steals of the modern era.
4. Jimmy Butler — Pick №30 (2011)
When the Chicago Bulls selected Jimmy Butler with the 30th pick in the 2011 NBA Draft, expectations were modest.
Late first-round picks are rarely expected to become franchise players. At best, teams hope they develop into reliable role players who can contribute off the bench.
But Butler’s career would take a very different path.
Early in his career he earned playing time through relentless defense and work ethic. Coaches quickly noticed that Butler approached every possession with unusual intensity, often guarding the opponent’s best player while gradually expanding his offensive game.
Season by season, Butler transformed himself. What began as a defensive specialist evolved into a complete two-way star capable of scoring, playmaking, and leading teams in the playoffs.
His rise eventually produced multiple All-Star selections, All-NBA honors, and deep postseason runs, including leading the Miami Heat to the 2020 NBA Finals.
Few players drafted at the very end of the first round develop into true franchise leaders.
Jimmy Butler did exactly that, turning the 30th pick into one of the most respected competitors in the league.
5. Tony Parker — Pick №28 (2001)
When the San Antonio Spurs selected Tony Parker with the 28th pick in the 2001 NBA Draft, the move attracted little attention.
International players were still something of a mystery to many NBA teams at the time, and Parker, a young French point guard, was considered raw and inexperienced compared with most American prospects.
Even Gregg Popovich, the Spurs’ head coach, initially challenged Parker heavily during his rookie season, pushing him to adapt quickly to the speed and physicality of the NBA.
But Parker’s development was rapid.
His quickness, ball control, and signature teardrop floater soon made him one of the most difficult guards to stop in the lane. As he gained confidence, Parker evolved from a promising young player into the primary playmaker of the Spurs’ offense.
Alongside Tim Duncan and Manu Ginóbili, Parker helped form one of the most successful trios in NBA history.
Over the course of his career he won four NBA championships, earned multiple All-Star selections, and in 2007 became the first European player to win the NBA Finals MVP award.
For a player selected 28th overall, Parker’s career represents one of the most remarkable success stories in modern NBA draft history.
6. Kawhi Leonard — Pick №15 (2011)
When Kawhi Leonard entered the 2011 NBA Draft, scouts admired his defensive ability but questioned whether he could ever become a complete offensive player.
He was selected 15th overall by the Indiana Pacers before being traded to the San Antonio Spurs on draft night. At the time, Leonard was viewed as a hardworking defensive specialist, a player who might eventually become a solid starter.
Few analysts predicted what would come next.
Under the Spurs’ development system, Leonard steadily improved his offensive game. His mid-range shooting, ball handling, and scoring ability evolved rapidly, transforming him from a defensive role player into one of the league’s most dominant two-way stars.
His breakthrough moment came during the 2014 NBA Finals, when Leonard’s defense on LeBron James and his efficient scoring helped the Spurs defeat the Miami Heat. At just 22 years old, he was named NBA Finals MVP.
Years later, Leonard delivered another unforgettable playoff run with the Toronto Raptors. In 2019 he led the franchise to its first NBA championship, producing a series of legendary performances along the way.
For a player selected 15th in the draft, Leonard’s career trajectory has been extraordinary. What began as a mid-first-round pick developed into one of the most complete players of his generation.
7. Dennis Rodman — Pick №27 (1986)
When Dennis Rodman entered the 1986 NBA Draft, he was far from a typical prospect.
Rodman had taken an unusual path to professional basketball. After struggling academically in high school, he played at a small junior college before eventually transferring to Southeastern Oklahoma State, a program that rarely produced NBA players.
Because of that unconventional background, Rodman was not viewed as a future star when the Detroit Pistons selected him with the 27th overall pick.
But what Rodman lacked in traditional scoring ability, he more than compensated for with relentless energy and defensive intensity.
He quickly developed into one of the most dominant rebounders the NBA had ever seen. Despite being undersized for a power forward, Rodman possessed extraordinary instincts for tracking missed shots and positioning himself for rebounds.
As a member of the Pistons’ legendary “Bad Boys” teams, Rodman helped Detroit win back-to-back championships in 1989 and 1990. Later, he became a key piece of the Chicago Bulls dynasty, winning three more titles alongside Michael Jordan.
Over the course of his career, Rodman won five NBA championships, earned Defensive Player of the Year awards, and led the league in rebounding seven consecutive seasons.
For a player selected 27th overall, Rodman’s impact on the game, particularly on defense and rebounding, remains one of the most remarkable draft success stories in NBA history.
8. Marc Gasol — Pick №48 (2007)
When Marc Gasol was selected with the 48th pick in the 2007 NBA Draft, he was largely seen as a long-term international project.
At the time, most of the attention surrounding the Gasol family was focused on his older brother, Pau Gasol, who had already established himself as one of the NBA’s best big men. Marc, meanwhile, was considered a skilled but slower center who might struggle with the speed of the NBA game.
But once Gasol joined the Memphis Grizzlies, he quickly proved that his basketball intelligence and versatility could translate perfectly to the modern NBA.
Gasol became the anchor of Memphis’ defense and the centerpiece of the team’s offense during the “Grit and Grind” era, a period when the Grizzlies were known for their physical defense and disciplined half-court play.
His ability to defend the paint, pass from the post, and control the pace of games made him one of the most respected centers in the league.
In 2013, Gasol was named NBA Defensive Player of the Year, and later in his career he helped the Toronto Raptors win the 2019 NBA Championship.
For a player selected 48th overall, Gasol’s career stands as another powerful example of how late draft picks can evolve into cornerstone players for championship teams.
9. Gilbert Arenas — Pick №31 (2001)
When Gilbert Arenas entered the 2001 NBA Draft, most teams viewed him as a talented but inconsistent scoring guard.
Despite his strong college career at Arizona, Arenas slipped into the second round, where the Golden State Warriors selected him with the 31st overall pick.
At the time, few analysts believed he would develop into one of the most explosive scorers in the league.
But Arenas quickly proved that the draft evaluations had underestimated his ability.
After earning the NBA Most Improved Player Award early in his career, Arenas joined the Washington Wizards and transformed into one of the NBA’s most electrifying offensive players. His fearless scoring mentality and deep shooting range made him one of the most dangerous guards in the league.
Nicknamed “Agent Zero,” Arenas became famous for his dramatic game winning shots and high scoring performances.
During his peak years he earned multiple All Star selections and regularly ranked among the NBA’s top scorers.
For a player drafted 31st overall, Arenas’ rise from overlooked prospect to superstar scorer remains one of the most surprising draft success stories of the early 2000s.
10. Isaiah Thomas — Pick №60 (2011)
Being selected with the final pick in the NBA Draft often comes with a label: “Mr. Irrelevant.”
Historically, the last player chosen in the draft rarely develops into a major contributor in the league. Many struggle to earn a roster spot, let alone build a long NBA career.
That’s what made the selection of Isaiah Thomas with the 60th pick in the 2011 NBA Draft seem like a long shot at the time.
Standing just 5 feet 9 inches tall, Thomas faced constant skepticism about whether he could succeed against much bigger guards in the NBA. Size has always been considered a major advantage in professional basketball, and many scouts believed Thomas would struggle defensively.
But Thomas quickly proved that determination and skill could outweigh those concerns.
After showing promise early in his career with the Sacramento Kings, he reached another level with the Boston Celtics. During the 2016–2017 season, Thomas became one of the most dynamic scorers in the league, averaging nearly 30 points per game and finishing fifth in MVP voting.
His remarkable season also earned him All-NBA First Team honors, an extraordinary achievement for a player who had been the final pick in the draft.
For someone selected 60th overall, Thomas’ rise from overlooked prospect to one of the NBA’s most electrifying scorers represents one of the most inspiring draft stories in basketball history.
Why Draft Night Doesn’t Always Predict Greatness
The NBA Draft is designed to predict the future of basketball.
Teams invest enormous time and resources evaluating prospects, hoping to identify the players who will define the next generation of the league.
Yet the stories of these ten players reveal something important about the draft process: greatness is not always easy to recognize.
Players like Nikola Jokić, Manu Ginóbili, and Jimmy Butler were not expected to become superstars when their names were called on draft night.
But through determination, skill, and relentless work ethic, they transformed themselves into some of the most impactful players of their era.
Their journeys remind us that while the draft may identify promising prospects, the true measure of greatness is revealed only after the games begin.
And sometimes, the biggest stars emerge from the places scouts expected the least.